China's Exports Will Grow By 10%

Uncertainties in the economies of Europe and the United States to increase China's export situation filled with pessimism in the context of well-known economist, Fan Gang, director of the National Economic Research Institute on the 4th, the economies of Europe and the United States and not a recession, but long in the doldrums, With the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to decline in China's export situation will not be too bad, is expected this year, there will still be an increase of 10%.

Said Fan Gang, 2012 Happiness Road to Hercynian series of forums to participate in Fuzhou, in 2011 the U.S. economy will be 2.6% to 2.7% growth this year, the U.S. economy will not be a negative growth expected to remain a growth of 1-2%. 17 European country's economy this year will not be a recession, Greece, Portugal and other countries may be negative growth, but Europe in general may be less than 1% growth. Japan's economy is expected to 2% growth in 2012 also.

The economies of Europe and the United States does not a recession, but long in the doldrums. "Fan Gang is expected, this state may last for 3-5 years, or it may last 5-8 years, but not negative growth. The proportion of developed countries in global GDP has dropped to about 50%, exports to China is not particularly large

At the same time, emerging market economies will still be substantial growth in exports to China is a positive factor. Fan Gang expects the Indian economy in 2012 will grow by 6%, Brazil 5% increase. Emerging market countries, the contribution rate of global economic growth has reached 80% growth in Chinese exports to the emerging market countries. The competitiveness of the domestic industry is getting higher and higher, the market share in the world will expand.

Recent RMB exchange rate issue is also a positive impact on exports to China. After the occurrence of the financial turmoil last year, the United States and Europe in the financial deleveraging, financing costs increase, a substantial increase in demand for capital, Fan Gang said. Many European and American multinational corporations to foreign funds transferred back to their own use. China's foreign exchange market supply and demand changes, market the initiative to ask the devaluation of the Renminbi, the global appreciation of the renminbi is expected to decline, the RMB exchange rate close to equilibrium in the short term.

Fan Gang said: "We have a full estimate of the negative foreign factors, but also a full estimate of the positive factors in the development of rational macroeconomic policy. 2012 China's export situation is not too bad, is expected there will still be an increase of 10%."